More of Beaufort will flood amid stronger storms and higher seas. What a new report says
Almost a third of Beaufort would be under water under the most extreme scenario considered in a new report on the city’s vulnerability to flooding.
The report gives officials more information as the city undertakes millions of dollars in drainage projects and considers policies to combat flooding in problem areas.
“I think the report is sort of the next step in the process of assessing where we have to go in terms of prevention, mitigation and what could be areas of retreat,” Mayor Billy Keyserling said. “We’ve been waiting for more hard data.”
A team of researchers from the S.C. Sea Grant Consortium, University of South Carolina and College of Charleston used tidal flooding models with anticipated sea-level rise and rainfall modeling specific to the city to assess flooding effects on public spaces, buildings and businesses under various scenarios.
The group is expected to present the findings to City Council during a workshop at City Hall on Jan. 28.
What it says
One of the areas most vulnerable to tidal flooding as seas rise is where you will find some of Beaufort’s most iconic homes.
The Point neighborhood, on the east side of downtown enveloped by the Beaufort River, is home to grand antebellum mansions with names like the Castle, Marshlands and Tidalholm that serve as the backdrop to Hollywood films and visitors’ horse-drawn carriage rides. It’s where Beaufort hero Robert Smalls was born into slavery before he commandeered a Confederate ship to freedom and served multiple terms in Congress.
With 2 feet of sea level rise above the average mark of higher high tides, about 13 percent of the neighborhood would be flooded. With 6 feet — about a foot more than the storm surge from Tropical Storm Irma that flooded Henry C. Chambers Waterfront Park and the Point in 2017 — more than 80 percent of the Point would be under water, according to the report.
A 2-foot rise by 2050 is on the high end of scenarios charted by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. A 6-foot rise is a possibility by 2100.
The report identifies two other areas would be more than half flooded with a 6-foot sea level rise: The downtown commercial district adjacent to the Point, including Bay Street shops and restaurants, and the Broad Street community in Mossy Oaks.
“I think what (the report is) going to do is provide additional supporting data for whenever we go out for grants or reviewing the code or whatever it is we’re doing,” said Neal Pugliese, the city’s former public facilities director, who is overseeing drainage projects in the Mossy Oaks area. “And I think that’s absolutely the thing we need to be doing. Some (studies) may be very aggressive in their projections and some may not be — I think you take all those in their totality.”
With 4 feet of sea-level rise — about a foot above abnormally high tides recorded in 2015 and 2018 — the runway at Beaufort County Airport on Lady’s Island would begin to flood. And another foot would flood the airport office and hangars.
Models show about 10 percent of the city is currently flooded by average high water, areas which include only marsh and the edges of property. With 6 feet of sea-level rise, 30 percent of the city would be flooded.
The report confirmed previous studies in identifying which areas are most at risk. But the document offers more detail by outlining potential effects on public spaces and businesses and the number of affected buildings , said Matt St. Clair, the city’s director of public projects and facilities.
At 3 feet of sea-level rise, nine businesses in the city totaling almost 250 employees are projected to be affected by tidal flooding. At 6 feet, 99 businesses with an annual sales volume of more than $150 million would be affected.
The downtown historic district is most susceptible to affected buildings and businesses during flooding from heavy rain, according to the modeling. With six inches of rain, more than 300 buildings and 49 businesses in the area would be affected by flooding, according to the report.
Not just one solution
City leaders approved borrowing $6 million last year for projects to improve drainage throughout an 800-acre area in Mossy Oaks. Plans include changing the elevation of pipes and enlarging them, digging new ponds and clearing others, installing mechanisms to manage the flow of water so that high tides don’t intrude and compound flooding during heavy rain — a prospect that will worsen as sea levels rise.
A drainage canal has been cleared on Jane Way near Beaufort Middle School, and the city recently finished clearing two ponds and updating drainage in the Twin Lakes area off Southside Boulevard. Permits are expected soon for the second phase of the Mossy Oaks work.
“We continue to move in a positive direction,” St. Clair said. “That’s what we owe the citizens of Beaufort — not to just identify the problems but start figuring out the solutions to those problems and applying resources.”
A sea-level rise overlay zone was proposed as part of the Lady’s Island plan that would require prospective property buyers be told about flooding risks. Rikki Parker, who heads the Beaufort office of the Coastal Conservation League, said policymakers need to begin considering a program to buy homes from willing property owners who have experienced repeated flooding.
“We are seeing property in Mossy Oaks and the city and Beaufort County more broadly, there are neighborhoods that have these repeated-loss homes where it would make sense to retreat from those really vulnerable places,” Parker said.
The mayor said the report will help create public awareness of how more intense storms and rising water are “going to change our way of life and change our way of having to do business as a city.”
“Managing sea-level rise is not going to take one solution, because there are different places, different impacts, different causes of excessive water,” Keyserling said. “But it is really accepting the reality that it exists and working to build flexible solutions that adjust to make sure we try to stay ahead of the problem rather than get behind it, as we have been.”
This story was originally published December 6, 2019 at 4:30 AM.
