1st tropical cyclone of 2026 may form in Gulf. Here’s what weather Hilton Head & SC can expect
.png "A map of tropical cyclone activity provided by the National Weather Service. The tropical disturbance is located on the Texas-Mexico border.")
The first named tropical cyclone of 2026 may form in the Gulf of Mexico near Texas this week.
The National Hurricane Center marked a tropical disturbance over Mexico, and gave it a 50% chance to form into a named tropical cyclone in the next seven days. It will be named Arthur if it forms.
Some weather models of the disturbance show it moving over South Carolina by this weekend. This could spell more rain and thunderstorms for Beaufort County if they hold true.
Here’s all you need to know about 2026’s potential first named tropical cyclone:
The Gulf disturbance
The disturbance sits just south of the Texas-Mexico border as of Monday afternoon. The NHC predicts it to move northeastward Tuesday and Wednesday. If it moves over the Gulf of Mexico it will encounter warm waters. Warm water could provide fuel for the disturbance to develop.
Tropical Cyclones typically need about 80-degree water temperatures to form. The National Centers for Environmental Information reports temperatures above 80 degrees across the western gulf. Names are given to tropical cyclones when their sustained wind speeds reach 39 miles per hour or greater.
Whether the disturbance develops or not, it is predicted to move eastward over the Southeast U.S. It is then predicted to move over South Carolina by the weekend. The models suggest it will be a weak tropical storm if it does develop.
What weather to expect
The National Weather Service predicts a rainy and stormy week ahead, although detailed forecasts for the weekend are not yet available. Precipitation chances through Wednesday vary between 50 and 70% each day. Showers and thunderstorms are likely Tuesday morning and at night. Showers and thunderstorms are likely Wednesday morning through 2 p.m.
The potential impacts of the tropical disturbance would be felt later in the week. The forecast is likely to change if the disturbance undergoes development. As of Monday, the NWS forecast predicts:
- Thursday: 40% chance of showers and thunderstorms during the day and 30% at night
- Friday: 50% chance of showers during the day and a 40% of precipitation at night
- Saturday: 40% chance of showers and thunderstorms during the day and 30% at night
- Sunday: 20% chance of showers and thunderstorms
The forecast will change based on what the disturbance does. To stay informed, visit the NHC’s website. It provides daily updates on tropical weather and forecast cones.