The Great Wealth Transfer will be smaller than you think

There's been a lot of talk about the Great Wealth Transfer, a projected shift of an estimated $124 trillion from older generations to younger ones.

A new report, however, questions how much of that money will actually reach the younger generations.

Here's the thinking: Let's say boomers, alone, are sitting on $93 trillion in assets. How much of that money will boomers spend to fund their own retirement? How much will go to pay off their debts? How much to the IRS?

Once you account for all of those expenses, and others, that $93 trillion shrinks to about $36 trillion in projected wealth that will pass to Gen X and millennial heirs over the next 20 years. That's the conclusion of a July report from Visa Business and Economic Insights.

"We toyed with the idea . . . of calling it the not-so-great wealth transfer," said Wayne Best, chief economist at Visa. But $36 trillion, he said, is still "a very significant amount of money."

The research explores a cautionary theme that has already crept into reports on the Great Wealth Transfer: That not all of those assets will reach the intended heirs.

The wealth is certainly there, though estimates vary on its size. A well-circulated 2024 report from Cerulli Associates put the figure at $124 trillion. Visa's research focuses on boomers, pegging their wealth at $93 trillion. For context, the report notes that the U.S. economy is about $32 trillion.

But not all of the money will pass down to the next generation.

Here's how $93 trillion in wealth shrinks to $36 trillion

Here are a few factors that will chip away at boomer wealth:

Debt. For all their riches, boomers are also carrying more than $4 trillion in debt: mortgage debt, credit card debt and loans taken out against their own investments, among other categories. Boomers carry more debt than prior generations.

Boomers "have more liabilities than I think a lot of people realize," Best said.

Subtract the debt from the wealth, and the $93 trillion shrinks to $88 trillion.

Foundations. Nearly one-third of boomer wealth belongs to the top 1% of households. And the top 1% behaves differently from everyone else, Best said. Much of that money will wind up in charitable foundations, rather than in the hands of heirs.

Exclude the top 1%, and $88 trillion shrinks to $60 trillion.

Retirement spending. Before they die, many boomers will have a long time to live. And they will have to spend some of their wealth, to cover housing and healthcare, food and prescription drugs, not to mention the potentially crippling costs of long-term care.

Visa estimates that spending will reduce the $60 trillion to $44 trillion.

Taxes. Much of the remaining wealth will be taxed. Between taxes, fees and charitable giving, Visa projects, the $44 trillion will shrink to $36 trillion.

Most of the Great Wealth Transfer will go to the wealthy

And most of that remaining $36 trillion, Visa reports, will go to heirs who are already wealthy.

The report predicts that roughly three-quarters of prospective heirs to the Great Wealth Transfer already rank among the top 10% of Americans by affluence.

"The wealth is generally concentrated with the affluent," Best said. "But the surprise is that most of it goes to affluent heirs."

Because those heirs have so much wealth already, Best said, they aren't likely to spend much of what they inherit. Instead, they will direct inherited wealth into savings, properties and investments.

And thus, $36 trillion in transferred wealth will yield about $8 trillion in consumer spending. Much of that money will go toward cars, travel, housing and dining out.

The Visa report ends on an upbeat note: Gen Xers and millennials are faring better financially than boomers were at the same ages.

After adjusting for inflation, the report says, both younger generations have a higher per-capita net worth now than boomers did at comparable ages: around $200,000 for the typical millennial, and $600,000 for the median Gen Xer.

Younger generations are doing better partly because Gen Xers and millennials have had access to 401(k)-style retirement savings plans throughout their careers. The 401(k) caught on in the 1980s, after most boomers were well into their working lives.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: The Great Wealth Transfer will be smaller than you think

Reporting by Daniel de Visé, USA TODAY / USA TODAY

USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

Copyright Reuters or USA Today Network via Reuters Connect

This story was originally published July 13, 2026 at 5:07 AM.