Two Atlantic low pressure systems continue their threat to develop into tropical storms, the National Hurricane Center reports.
A system in the west central Caribbean sea seems to be quickly gaining momentum, with a 60 percent chance of developing into a tropical storm in the next two days and an 80 percent chance in the next five. Those odds are up from yesterday’s 30 percent chance of formation over two days and 50 percent chance over five.
“You’ve got to watch this one a lot closer because it is surrounded by land in all four directions,” said Dennis Feltgen, spokesman for the NHC. “It is better organized than it was yesterday, but is still nowhere close to being a tropical cyclone at this point”
An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft has been scheduled to fly into the storm on Monday if needed. A flight scheduled for Sunday was canceled.
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The Caribbean system is expected to develop into a tropical depression or tropical storm before it slams into the Yucatan peninsula, but even if it doesn’t, the NHC is predicting that if its path takes it into the Bay of Campeche, it could develop into a tropical depression or storm by midweek.
Feltgen advises people in Honduras, Nicaragua, Belize, and on the Yucatan peninsula to pay close attention to the development of this system as it moves towards them in the next few days, even if it doesn’t organize into a tropical storm.
“It is moving in a west-northwest direction, so there is land in front of it,” said Feltgen. “We want folks there to pay attention because they’ve got a big rain event and some squally weather at the very least coming toward them.”
Meanwhile, an area of elongated low pressure located between the Cabo Verde Islands and Lesser Antilles has seen its prospects of further development downgraded over the last 24 hours. It has a 30 percent chance of developing into a tropical storm in the next two days and a 50 percent chance in the next five. That is down from a 40 percent two day chance and 70 percent five day chance on Saturday.
“It hasn’t come together at all,” said Feltgen. “It certainly won’t be any threat to land for quite some time.”
The system has remained disorganized over the last few days, but a possibility remains that it might start to pick up steam as it moves west-northwest across the Atlantic at about 15 mph.
Neither system is anticipated to be a threat to the U.S. at this time, Feltgen said.