More voters feeling blue

After a sustained period of GOP dominance starting in 1994 when the Republican Party unveiled its Contract with America, voters in many parts of the country appear to be shifting toward the Democratic Party.

In states where residents must register by party to vote in primaries, the trend for the last four years has been for more residents to register as Democrats than as Republicans.

In Iowa and Nevada -- key swing states -- the registration advantage has flipped from Republican to Democratic since 2004, when the Republicans had the edge in those states. No states have flipped from Democratic to Republican since 2005.

In the 26 states with complete voter registration data, Democrats made gains in more than half, while in only three states -- Louisiana, Kentucky and Oklahoma -- GOP registrations rose while Democratic registration fell.

In South Carolina, where voters don't register by party, a survey performed by the Institute for Public Service and Policy Research at the University of South Carolina suggests Democrats are making gains, too.

The survey, conducted twice a year since 1989, was most recently done this spring. It showed a statistical dead heat in party identification among South Carolinians: 34 percent of respondents identified themselves as Democrats compared to 33.5 percent who called themselves Republicans. (The survey's margin of error is plus or minus 3.6 percent.)

In past years, Republicans enjoyed a clear advantage over Democrats, according to the surveys. From 2002 to 2006, Republicans averaged an 11 percentage point lead over Democrats. The GOP's advantage peaked in 2003 and 2005, when it led by as much as 13.4 percentage points.

USC political science professor Blease Graham was quick to point out that party identification isn't an exact measure of how people will vote. Compelling candidates and effective campaigns can convince voters of either political stripe to cross over.

But Graham said the survey showed how -- even in traditionally conservative South Carolina -- there have been some gains by the Democratic Party.

"The Republicans have been dominant, but there's nothing permanent in politics," Graham said.

Despite a shift in voter identification and strong Democratic turnout in the presidential primaries, political handicappers are putting South Carolina in the Republican camp in the presidential race.

And even as Sen. Barack Obama's campaign targets neighboring Georgia, long considered a safe Republican state, South Carolina generally is not mentioned as one the Democrats can take away from Sen. John McCain, the GOP's nominee.

Whileparty identification isn't formally tracked, there are more registered voters in Beaufort County than ever before.

Voter registration director Agnes Garvin said Friday that roughly 84,400 voters are registered in the county, a number that she expects to continue to increase until the Oct. 4 registration deadline.

To register to vote in Beaufort County, go to www.bcgov.net/VoterReg for an application or call 843-470-3751. The deadline to register is Oct. 4.