Would the tourists return in the aftermath of an island hurricane?

The 2008 hurricane season worries the Beaufort County Emergency Management director more than any other past season.

It's not the national predictions of 14 tropical storms and eight hurricanes -- four of them major -- that worry William Winn.

He's worried that just the threat of a hurricane could hurt small-business owners in Beaufort County because they're already facing a tough tourist season.

"The way the economy is right now, people won't come here with the threat of a storm," Winn told a crowd of several hundred local business owners Tuesday at the annual Hurricane Expo sponsored by the Hilton Head Island-Bluffton Chamber of Commerce.

"It does not take a landfall storm to have a significant economic impact on Hilton Head Island."

Winn said businesses need to plan for worst-case scenarios. He asked them to help the chamber plan, too, by providing it with information about where their customers come from, how their business grows during the tourist season and how sales are affected during summer storms.

Planning for a hurricane is just as important as evacuations, he said.

Winn urged local businesses to plan when they would close and what would be expected of employees.

He also said that while he asks tourists to leave first before initiating voluntary or mandatory evacuations, any evacuation is going to be difficult.

"I wish I could tell you evacuation time is 10 or 12 hours, but it's well over 20 hours," he said.

"We need you to work with us," he continued. "We need you to plan. We need you to be effective. Plan A: Let's not have a storm. Plan B: Let's do everything we have to when we have a threat."

So, what's the hurricane risk for Beaufort County this year?

Speaking at the expo, Weather Channel on-air meteorologist Jeff Morrow said the shape of the coast keeps the county relatively safe from hurricanes.

In the past 156 years, 30 hurricanes have hit the state and none have been a Category 5, he said. Hurricanes range from categories 1 to 5.

"But every year the atmosphere resets and we have to worry," Morrow said.

On Hilton Head, Morrow said, residents need to be aware of the shallow ocean bottom, which could cause water to push 30 feet up the beach in a bad storm.

"So we are very vulnerable here," he said. "A lot of this island, in a Category 4 or 5 storm, will go under water."

His co-worker, meteorologist Dale Eck, said that in an atmosphere of global warming, people can expect stronger tropical systems and severe weather.

Winn said he plans to work with the chamber to develop an advertising campaign that could help revive businesses that take a financial loss after closing for a hurricane.

"The peak time (for local businesses) is the tourist season," he said. "If the tourists leave, we need a campaign to get them back."