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The associate professor at the University of Notre Dame studies macroeconomics.
And of all the signals, data, trends and tea leaves he watches, one stands out sharply against the rest.
It is America's exploding debt. He says national debt is the biggest red flag in the long-term prospects of the economy.
Pries will give a free lecture Thursday night as a guest of the Notre Dame Alumni Club of Hilton Head Island. The fifth local offering of the national Hesburgh Lecture Series will begin at 7 p.m. at St. Francis by the Sea Catholic Church on Beach City Road.
The program, co-sponsored by the Knights of Columbus and Women of St. Francis, may not be as exciting as last year when Charlie Weis, the then Notre Dame head football coach, spoke here after the club was named national alumni club of the year.
But if my quick telephone conversation with professor Pries is any indication, his message is one the nation needs to hear. It should be accompanied by marching bands and sequined dancers. Pries makes troublesome observations that, for some reason, the nation seems oblivious to.
His address -- "After the Crisis: Economic Recovery and Long-Term Prospects for the U.S. Economy" -- will include optimism.
"In the long run, the economy will recover," he said.
But he warns that over the next 10 years -- perhaps the next 20 to 30 years -- the national debt will act as an anvil tied to that recovery.
The national public debt stands today at $12.7 trillion, according to the non-partisan Concord Coalition.
An economy that must divert so much of earnings into debt payment will be sluggish.
The heart of the problem is that payouts from Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid will soon mushroom, Pries said.
Also at play is a fairness question. The common debate is how to fairly treat the rich, the working class and the poor. But Pries says the real fairness issue is that the current generation is not paying its way. That is unfair to our children and grandchildren.
Options are to cut spending, raise taxes or somehow get earnings to grow faster.
America faced crippling debt after World War II, but Pries notes that tax rates were quite low then, so it was not as painful to raise them. Now, he said, tax rates are already high.
"We face a painful problem, and there are no easy solutions," Pries said. "No one wants to raise taxes or cut spending."
That will not get you re-elected. But Pries does not see the debt problem as a partisan one. It's America's problem, and it must be dealt with.
That's the big picture.
