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Dr. Orin Pilkey of Duke University expects the melting of the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets to cause sea levels to rise between 3 and 7 feet by 2100. That would force coastal barrier islands to erect seawalls or move inland, he said.
Pilkey, Duke's director of the Program for the Study of Developed Shorelines, was one of the experts who on Thursday discussed how climate changes would affect coastal communities in a teleconference hosted by the Rockefeller Family Fund's Environment Program.
While some scientists believe global warming is not the result of an increase in greenhouse gas emissions and is part of a natural cycle, Pilkey contends it is driven by escalating carbon dioxide emissions, which cause oceans to heat up and glaciers to melt.
A 3-foot sea level rise would put most of southern Hilton Head, as well as the island's northern tip, under water, along with land adjacent to Broad Creek, according to maps created by Jeremy Weiss, a senior research specialist in Geosciences at the University of Arizona. The maps also show that rising waters would swallow much of the land at the Beaufort and Jasper county line, nearly all of Fripp Island and the edges of Parris Island.
Weiss created global maps by using historic records from interglacial periods and recent trends monitored by the U.S. Geological Survey. The maps can highlight specific areas. They also can show what the land looks like now and how it would change with a sea level rise of between 3 and 21 feet.
"When we get up to 3 feet, the cities will be in trouble -- Boston; Washington, D.C.; New York; Newark; and particularly Miami, which is at very low elevations," Pilkey said.
"When the cities are in trouble, it's very likely that federal money ... will go to the cities and the barrier island, recreational properties will have difficulty. It's going to be up to individual towns to respond ... ."
MANAGING OUR BEACHES
The South Carolina Department of Health and Environmental Control is studying shoreline change and beachfront management. The agency's Office of Ocean and Coastal Resource Management expects to hold public forums on the matter in Beaufort County in May, said Braxton Davis, OCRM director of policy and planning.
OCRM is required to review the baselines on beaches -- the line which development cannot cross -- every 8 to 10 years. Baselines are set by the historical shoreline and erosion rates, said OCRM spokesman Dan Burger.
For Hilton Head, some of those baselines were moved closer to the ocean this year.
On the island's heel, for example, the baseline at Singleton Beach was moved 25 feet closer to the ocean. The setback also was extended 170 feet toward land, which limits beach development and provides more beach protection, Burger said.
In front of Shipyard Plantation, however, the baseline was moved 75 feet closer to the ocean, Burger said. The setback was not extended.
Town of Hilton Head officials, who could not be reached for comment on this story, have opposed moving the baselines forward.
The OCRM baseline reviews did not consider sea level rise, Burger said.
"Sea level rise is something our regulations don't specifically contemplate, and it is something that many people in the coastal management community are getting much more in tune with," Burger said. "It may very well be something we consider down the road ... . It is something that homeowners and the state need to be fully aware of."
A LACK OF URGENCY?
Critics say local and state planners are not taking the possible rise of sea levels seriously enough and must consider it or chance losing unique plants and animals that make up coastal ecosystems.
They also say a national cap on carbon pollution would reduce emissions and slow global warming and climate change.
The South Carolina Climate, Energy & Commerce Advisory Committee, created by the governor two years ago, developed a "road map" of 51 policies that would cut the state's emissions in half by 2020, said Ben Moore of the South Carolina Coastal Conservation League.
"That road map is gathering dust," Moore said. "There hasn't been one leader in this state to take that document up and try to lead with it, which is just a real shame."
Moore said no one is moving with a sense of urgency.
"The whole Lowcountry way of life is under threat from sea level rise, and the question is, are we going to be able as a state and as a society to act collectively to head off that threat ... in time?" Moore said. "I don't see the state or municipalities speaking out loudly."
